Thanks Jeff for gmail messaging me about this new 3.1 change.
Flasks are going to drop in price with the release of patch 3.1 due to the fact that alchemists will be able to make double the flasks for the same number of mats currently.
What does this mean for you enterprising auctioneers?
SELL THE FLASKS NOW!
I estimate that even with the demand ulduar will create for these items that DOUBLING the current supply would destroy the market. Expect to barely make a profit off selling them after patch 3.1.
Some of you may be thinking, well, what if people post too low while trying to dump their flasks? Perhaps you should take the oppurtunity to buy those posted too low (as in cheaper than the cost of current mats divided by two).
Thanks Jeff for the message.
Remember to keep an eye out for flasks posted far too low, and do your best to empty your stockpile at the current price. Note that when the flasks take a price drop from this change that the mats required to make them will drop in value as well. Eventually things will even out and you will be able to buy the mats + craft the flasks for a marginal profit, but nothing as obscene as you can make now.
NOTE: When the change to flasks happens all your current flasks that say 2 hours will now have a duration of 1, effectively cutting your stockpile in half. Sell now for the current price or you will lose HALF of your investment after the patch.
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19 comments: on "Sell Flasks NOW"
Varth said... March 24, 2009 at 8:29 AM
The patch notes actually state that you will get two flasks for the same mats, but that the duration on the flasks has been reduced to one hour. Therefore the prices should approximately halve - meaning you will be making exactly the same profit as you are now
Markco said... March 24, 2009 at 9:04 AM
The point remains: All the flasks you currently hold will be worth half their value after the patch.
SELL NOW!
Kring said... March 24, 2009 at 9:28 AM
I have 2 flasks in my bag. :-/
You know what's strange? On my server, the price for moonshroud dropped from abouer 90g to 50g during the last week. I don't get that one.
Kring said... March 24, 2009 at 9:39 AM
I have another question. There are the 4 old world dragon pets which are painful to farm. They normally went for about 1900g.
In the last few weeks I noticed heavy botting around these areas and the pets started to flood the AH. Yesterday there were about 10 azure pets for 500g each, by two different sellers.
I did report 3 bots and the one I put on my friend list did not log on after about a week after reporting it.
Clearly, there isn't a market at the moment. Otherwise, the prices would not drop that low.
Would you buy them all out and hope that Blizzard bans all bots and then slowly sell them?
Will the market recover? The only possible buyer who might be willing to pay more than the current 500g is a pet collector with money. But why wouldn't he buy it now? Will people all of a sudden start to collect pets?
Or will these pets lose value because with time it gets easier to get the 75 pet achievement (children week, new 3.1 pets) and you don't need the expensive BoE pets anymore.
Can you make money from botters?
Anonymous said... March 24, 2009 at 9:47 AM
The Flasks are getting their duration cut in half . but instead you make double the flasks . If you have 100 flasks right now their times will be cut in half next patch and mean you will be losing a lot of money because they will drop about 50% less price. Also there will be double the flasks to undercut , Meaning more people will be undercutting people and therefor bringing the price down.
Ben said... March 24, 2009 at 9:52 AM
It doesn''t seem like blizzard to destroy your existing stock, as this would penalize those two have been preparing. It seems more likely to me that you will have your current stocks doubled (max stack will be increased) or something like that so they retain the same functionality.
Do you actually have a link to a post, in blue, saying they will be destroying all the preparations made by alchs for 3.1 over the last few weeks?
Anonymous said... March 24, 2009 at 11:03 AM
I have to agree with Ben. The outcry from losing half of your flasks would be over the top. I would suspect that everyone will have twice as many flasks at half the time put in their inventory (probably in their mailbox in case of space restrictions). There are a number of people that read this blog (as I can see price fluctuations based on posts here) and to go off half cocked like this is borderline belligerent.
Markco said... March 24, 2009 at 11:48 AM
No news from blizzard on how they will resolve this. I suggest taking the point to them with forum posts under the suggestion forums.
The point still stands, unless blizzard doubles your inventory your current stock will be worth 1/2 its value when patch 3.1 hits.
Anonymous said... March 24, 2009 at 1:00 PM
I'll disagree on the pricing change with this commentary about per unit accounting for flasks.
Eggalicious said... March 24, 2009 at 1:53 PM
As for Flask value, if you use them for your own consumption, don't bother to do anything. Just keep them for personal use as you normally would. If you are selling them for profit, then I don't see a drastic change. The only difference will be that you will get two when making them, but the duration will be half, so it is a wash. People will need to buy twice as many for raiding.
As for Kring's comment about the botters, I am surprised that there are still botters around. I know that I have seen a huge decrease in botters on my server...probably due to the fact that the most popular botting program has been taken offline. If you are interested, there are several posts about it and it has been covered by wowinsider as well. Will the decrease in botting activity increase the value of items on the AH? You would think so. Less farming should equal less supply and higher prices.
Ben said... March 24, 2009 at 10:03 PM
Anon-"I would suspect that everyone will have twice as many flasks at half the time put in their inventory (probably in their mailbox in case of space restrictions)"
Like I said, they are increasing the max stack size, so no such action would be necessary. If they double the number that you have, it will still fit in the same spaces.
Anonymous said... March 25, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Actually with a follow up blue post the old flasks will not be grandfathered in with the new duration, so all your old flasks will still have 2hr durations. The flask stack size is also getting increased to 20. The reason they are doing this is that many guilds were deciding if to continue raiding for an evening on the remaining duration of those flasks.
http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=15864859958&sid=1
Anonymous said... March 25, 2009 at 9:05 AM
Thanks Ben, I missed that detail. Also, from the looks of the last Anon post, the sky isn't falling after all...
Ben said... March 25, 2009 at 12:15 PM
That's surprising, but another possibility I had thought of. The reason I thought they would sooner double your stock is because this approach seems like it will generate AH confusion unless they rename all of the flasks, as well. IE you will search for Flask of X and you will see the results, but you would have to mouse over them to see which ones are two hour and which are one hour flasks.
Anonymous said... March 25, 2009 at 5:46 PM
I don't mean to come off hostile but I have to say thanks for the "Sell Flasks Now" post it has driven down flask prices and I have been able to pick them up cheap. It seems to me that the best way to use this sight is for dis-information these days. It's like my own personal pump and dump stock scam. You say to do something and I figure out how to exploit it once everyone starts doing it. Icy Dragonscales worked the same way. I picked up a bunch cheap and then boom the market exploded as soon as the speculation started and I get to turn a tidy profit.
Markco said... March 25, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Anony: Also, the uproar caused on the wow forums was one possible reason a change was implimented.
Have you ever heard of the show madmoney? There are people who do exactly what you're doing and make tons of money from it.
Nothing wrong with reverse speculating!
Anonymous said... March 26, 2009 at 2:41 PM
From a blue post (http://blue.mmo-champion.com/1/8496459983-flasks-are-changing-in-patch-310.html):
"We realise this change may make players who have already stockpiled flasks themselves, or in guild banks, feel like they have lost gold since their current flasks will only last for half as long. So to partially remedy this, we are going to allow players to exchange any current Northrend flasks (Flask of Pure Mojo, Flask of the Frost Wyrm, Flask of Endless Rage and Flask of Stoneblood) for two flasks with the shorter duration. These Northrend flasks made prior to 3.1.0 will be magically turned into “mixtures” which can be converted into two flasks with an effect duration of one hour. "
So YOU WILL LOSE NO MONEY ON OUTLAND FLASKS.
Anonymous said... April 2, 2009 at 11:42 AM
you dont lose money if you can turn them in. It even might be a smart thing to buy up all cheap flasks that need the frost.. something to get mats back and than remake or sell mats.
World of Warcraft Gold Guides said... May 7, 2009 at 3:06 PM
good post :)
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