All Your Sha Crystals Are Mine

Posted by J.E. Douglas at 12:57 PM

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Many times there is a argument within my head that can cause the brain to grind to a halt.   Usually this is wrapped around something that I have yet to understand with the market.

Sha Crystals have slowly become devalued as the Mists of Pandaria expansion matures.  From there start that a set of 10 for an enchant could cost thousands of gold,  to the much smaller amount that they cost now.

As I was looking through the Auction House I noticed that many of these valuable enchanting items were going for lower and lower prices.  Easily outstripping their value when processed by an enchanter.   So I decided to take a test run at one of the few basic premises that have brought gold into my pocket for many years.

I purchased all of the Sha Crystals with the low being 65g and the high being 85g.  Even at that price I could use them for enchants and come out ahead.  With the big three wrist enchants (Agi, Int, Str) going for a thousand gold a piece I could just drop them into making these and make a profit.  But my favorite strategy is to get the item to pay for itself.

After buy 30 of them (healthy investment) I listed up 10 on the AH for 150g a piece.  This paid for over half of the investment if I sold them this way.  If they didn't sell then I would just be out the AH fees and still process them into their enchants.

The next day I ended up selling three of them before being undercut so that netted me a quarter of my investment back.  If I had wanted to be more patient I could have worked half the batch of the Sha Crystals the same way and ended up just having the other half of the crystals be pure profit.  Ultimately I ended up multipling my investment by 4 (used a couple of them for personal enchants) and then went on my merry way.

But I was thinking of exactly why there was this complete imbalance to the enchanting system.  I have always tried to keep a 20% markup on my enchants.  This means to me that I won't list an enchant unless I can get 20% profit between the cost of the materials and the sale of the enchant.  So if it would cost me 200g to buy the items from the open market,  I would not make the enchant for anything less than 240g.  If the item goes for higher then that's just bonus gravy for the potatoes.

But in this case for lets say for the Enchant Bracer: Greater Agility it takes three Sha Crystals to make the enchant.  If you can purchase the crystals for 80g avg that sets the cost to manufacture at 240g.  By the 20% method it shouldn't sell for anything les than 288g.  On many servers this enchant goes for 1500g plus.  That is a huge markup on something that has little materials costs. 

So part of my brain wonders if this isn't just laziness for players.  Since LFR and Flex raids use a personal loot system instead of a need/greed you end up with less Sha Crystals being produced that way.  Regular and Heroic runs still can allot items to be sharded.  But the majority of raid crews just drop those into their guild bank or use for personal crafting.  This leaves the real access to Sha Crystals to be the DEing of Epic gear from Timeless Isle.

But with all those limiting factors and the shortage of areas to get crystals.  The mental game is back to square one.  Why are these so cheap still?   The one factor you have to add is the lemming effect.  Too many Auction house players will list whatever they can get out of an item.  Profit now instead of profiting later.  This especially happens with using semi automatic listers such as TSM or Auction Watcher.  Unless your paying strict attention and know a relative value for an item,  it becomes easier to just click and forget.

Timing is also involved when it comes to obtaining good market profit.  Tuesday is a major raid day on most servers because of the reset.  Everyone can get new loot and have to fill that new loot with enchants and gems.  So listing your best items at their most expensive price makes perfect sense.  More bang for the buck.  But Sunday and Monday can be attested by anyone who has been stuck in a bad LFR will tell you that Monday will probably be a slower day.  Less gear one and less updates to the gear.  That's when looking for the undercut deals to purchase becomes the better play.

These are normal and basic tenants to being a good gold goblin.  Look for strengths and weaknesses in markets and capitalize on them.  And never ever be the lazy player who just clicks and forgets.

Good Luck and Good Hunting

Want to get in contact with me? . Email me at Dragonbear @ gmail. Dot com or find me on twitter at "@JMTCMommar" You can find me hanging out on the Shandris Server, chat me up, and I will buy you a glass of juice. 

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Monday Morning Raiding Quarterback
WOW:  Warlords of Draenor
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Days Of The Dead
 The Times Ten Challenge
The Blanket Method
Lost All Hallows Day
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Chain Flipping

Posted by J.E. Douglas at 2:04 PM

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Okay kids.  First a story then the background and reasoning behind the story.

This weekend there was a call on trade chat for some fuel iron either in a bar or in ore form.  Usually I will message the person to see exactly how much they are looking for.  If it is one or two bars then i will end up just dropping them on the Auction House for the going price and tell them they are there.   Generally i don't try to gut the person but I have a good off hand knowledge of the value of items.

This time I decided to talk with them for a bit.   They were looking to level up their Blacksmithing and so I told them exactly how much I had left (91 bars and 80 ore).   They made me an offer that was reasonable then they gave me an option.  Take the gold or would I trade for two Living Steel Bars.  Now this wasn't going to become lets make a deal and I wasn't in a fancy costume.   But I did know the general value of Living Steel and it's listing price on the Auction House.  I expanded my mental notes and remembered that Living Steel Belt Buckles were going for considerably higher.   So I had multiple options.  I could take the gold.  I could take the trade for the Living Steel bars and also make the Living Steel Belt Buckles for a profit.   I could even take the gold,  Buy the Living Steel bars and then make the Belt Buckles (or any comparable item for profit).

The idea is that from one trade instead of just taking gold I opened up multiple options to make even more gold from one trade.  This to me is the basic idea behind chain flipping.  You are taking one item instead of straight gold and building more profit into the item.   Ultimately you can squeeze 2 to 3 times the amount of gold from the trade than if you just take the gold itself.

The big push for this is a knowledge of the market.   Fel Iron ore and bars are not in demand other than leveling or the occasional transmog item.  So their value is purely based on their rarity.  If there are 15 stacks on the AH then your stacks of Fel Iron are only worth that.  But if there is none on the AH then this is where your negotiation ability comes into play.

Also with this you can get a decent idea of approximately what the person is going to use the items in trade for.  If they are buying only ore,  then it could be either leveling Jewelcrafting,  Blacksmithing or Engineering. If they are asking only for bars,  then you can limit this get a good guess that they are using it to level their Blacksmithing or Engineering.  It also gives you the level that they probably are in that field.  You could work out a trade that is more useful and flexible than just asking for gold for your items.  This doesn't take into effect someone wanting a specific item made or are making it for themselves.  But your educated guess can net you a tidy profit over and above the straight market value.

So keep this in mind the next time you do a trade.   What do they want it for?  What are your needs in that field.  Open up the negotiations for the possibility of getting a trade.  You have something they want and they easily could have something that you might want.   Expanding your sales and production opportunities puts you that much higher in the gold making food chain.

Good Luck and Good Hunting

Want to get in contact with me? . Email me at Dragonbear @ gmail. Dot com or find me on twitter at "@JMTCMommar" You can find me hanging out on the Shandris Server, chat me up, and I will buy you a glass of juice. 

Taste of Streaming Raids and Kites
Monday Morning Raiding Quarterback
WOW:  Warlords of Draenor
Tomorrow Is Blizzcon
Glyph Me Once Shame On You
Days Of The Dead
 The Times Ten Challenge
The Blanket Method
Lost All Hallows Day
You Never Know

The ore report - Dig dig dig

Posted by J.E. Douglas at 5:29 PM

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As your setting up your professions and sales goals for Mists of Pandaria,   the biggest decision will be just how much ore and what kinds to have.

If you have the benefit of seemingly unlimited capital,  then you can cover your bases by carrying all of the different ores,  stocking them into different places for use or resell.

But many are looking at how much to invest,   how much to place in each type to get the most profit.   Lets walk through all of the different ores,  and get a decent idea of just what will be impacted.

Copper ore

This is the starting point for all of the professions that use ore and bars to level (blacksmithing,  jewelcrafting,  engineering).   Also it will be the easiest to find on the AH,  so your investment level should be low if any saved back

Investment grade D-

Tin Ore

Not particularly useful for leveling any of the major professions.  It is used in some crafting items for lower level gear so may be useful for a minimum investment.  

Investment Grade D

Silver Ore

Found on the spawn points of Tin Ore.   This helps with the leveling grind for multiple professions.   With it's relative rarity to the other ore spawn points,  it goes a long way for reselling on the AH.  

Investment Grade C-

Iron Ore

This is where you can start with collection of materials for resell.   Iron Ore is still a common ore,  but is useful for all three professions.  And many of the leveling miners will blow through the nodes for iron ore and then not collect any more.   Blacksmithing sees heavy use for it's leveling by using Iron Ore

Investment Grade B-

Gold Ore

Another stop gap for investment for many of the professions.  Jewelcrafting uses this material for it's leveling around the 135-160 level.   Blacksmithing has the Golden Scale set in the 175 range.  Even Tailoring uses this for crafting the Brightcloth set.   It is more rare than it's counterpart spawn points of iron.   Keep a steady supply of this on the AH for larger profits

Investment Grade B

Mithril Ore

This will be a large money maker combined with truesilver and thorium.  Most people race to try to get through the leveling process,  and when leveling professions won't take the time to stock up.  Plus these metals are going for low amounts on the AH.   Purchase multiple quantities of these for reselling and restocking.

Truesilver Ore

The rare node area of mithril,   is used as a stop gap for all of the major professions around the 230 range for leveling.  Blacksmithing relies heavy on this for leveling.  Jewelcrafting also have high needs for this
to get through the 230-240 crafting gap.  Will be in High demand

Investment Grade B

Thorium Ore

Another one that will end up being useful and in demand.   Many farming cartels are starting to stockpile this which might drive down the prices and useful sales.  Keep an eye on your Ah health and if needed,  save for later sales in the cycle

Investment Grade B-

Fel Iron Ore

The starting ore found in Burning Crusade.   Blacksmithing and Jewelcrafting rely heavy on it for leveling.   But it also is relatively easy to find nodes all around the Burning Crusade leveling spots.  Be cautious with the amount you sell,  but it will sell at a tidy profit,  if not immediately after a time.

Investment Grade B-

Adamantite Ore

Another rare spawn found in Burning Crusades.  Most miners are not going to be stockpiling this,  hoping to get more thorium/Mithril ore.   Keep a healthy supply of this for trading and selling in your stockpiles.   Multiple professions use this to level up to the 350+ level before getting into the Cataclysm leveling professions.

Investment Grade B-

Cobalt Ore

Used again by multiple professions.  This is going to be the start of a three prong attack for investing.  It's not found continually for mining in the Wrath of the Lich king areas,  heavily used for professions all the way up to 450,  and also won't be mined as often by those leveling through it's normal spawn areas.   Keeping a relatively decent supply of this through Mists of Pandaria should put you ahead of the sales curve.

Investment Grade C+

Saronite Ore

Saronite ends up being difficult to gauge for it's future investment.  Most of the mining occurs for this in the Wintergrasp PVP area.   And is used by multiple professions as well.  Jewelcrafters will use multiple amounts to generate common and medium gems cheaply and efficiently for the daily jewelcrafting items.   Also as Blacksmith and engineering use this for leveling up to the 425 area.   Keeping a very healthy supply of this ore will keep your percentages high in the market.   Just watch out for bots that can drive the prices down,  Wintergrasp is heavily trafficked for mining bots and can sink an Ore economy very quickly.

Investment Grade B+

Titanium

If your farming Saronite ore in Wintergrasp or other areas,   these will spawn occasionally.   But the demand for the ore/bars other than for a few recipes (Mechano-Hog) requiring a large amount for titansteel crafting,  otherwise just keep a good eye for deals as they pop up for people dumping inventory or mistake of pricing.
If your server is in high demand for the Titansteel then keep a good supply may give you rewards.   Otherwise you have other places to invest your goblin gold at.

Investment Grade C-

Obsidium Ore

The starting mining ore found in Cataclysm.  This has already dropped in price significantly on multiple auction houses.   Mining bots are crashing the investment worthy,  and many of the Jewelcrafters that were performing the obsidium/elementium shuffle have stopped generating the use of the ore to begin stockpiling.  Necessary for almost all of the major professions to level,  it will generate gold when sold,  easily 2 to 3 times as much if you buy low and sell high at peak demand.

Investment Grade B-

Elementium Ore

Most of the powerleveling guides have elementium ore topping off the 425-435 range very quickly.   Needing a large amount of crafting and volatiles to finish off pre Mist of Pandaria leveling.   Undoubtedly there will be demand,  though the current glut of unsold ore will effect pricing.   A wait and see attitude can be used to make sure that you are a heavy supplier for the ore/bars while others are caught with their ore down.

Pyrite Ore

The red headed stepchild of mining.   Investing now in it will lose you money each and every time.   With no epics generated and only a few receipes using the bar form (Truegold from alchemists,  Epic weapon and armor patterns from both leatherworking and blacksmithing).  Investing in Pyrite is truly a fools gold errand.   Keep a few stacks in your inventory just in case it's useful.  But unless you get a sweetheart of a deal,  avoid investing this like the plague.

Investment Grade  D (and that's being generous).

For my investment strategies when the auction house melee hits,  I'm looking at any of the investment grades that are higher than C's to be heavily invested in,   anything lower I will have some moderate stacks available but not sink a large amount of gold into it.   Also a caveat is if a great deal arrives to jump on.   Whether it's long term or short term,  ore will sell or be used.

Bar forms for investment will always trump leaving an item in ore form.   But if you leave the ore in it's natural form you are given more flexibility when investing and selling.

Just keep an eye on the market,  and try to catch the fluctuations as auction house sales continue.   Be ready to drop items hard and heavy during the weekends and when new patches are released.  Being the first on the market will spur sales growth.

Good luck and good hunting

Want to get in contact with me? . Email me at Dragonbearjoe @ gmail. dOT com or find me on twitter at "@Dragonbearjoe" or leave a comment here. You can find me hanging out on the Shandris Server, chat me up and I will buy you a glass of juice.


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