3.1 Upgrades and Inflation - Not Happening This Time | Just My Two Copper

Posted by Markco at 8:00 AM

Upgrades with inflation is not happening this time.

I'll say it again: With patch 3.1 you are not going to see prices sky rocket for weeks while people gear their characters. I read and heard about so many people stockpiling mats, ready to dump for season six.

It's not going to happen. It's just not going to be like the glyphs were a week ago.

Here's why:

PVE - People are not clearing Ulduar at anywhere near the rate of naxx 10-25. Even 10 man ulduar is challenging enough that you cannot pug it. What I've noticed in the raids is that, especially in 10 man, the dps have far more responsibilities and fight gimmicks to watch out for. Another thing to note is that there's more randomness in accounters (adds spawning and locations, cooldown timers, etc). You're not going to walk out with a smorgeousboard of goods like naxx.

PVP - No one will be buying gear out of the gate with season six. Why? Because you're going to need to play 50 games and win every time just to start seeing gear! There will be a decent group of players purchasing free hateful/deadly rewards but other than this group no one will be buying gear. Yes prices will rise from this group alone, but I'm doubtful that it will be sustained more than a day or two.

So what's going to happen to the market for season six? People are going to flood... A LOT. With little demand and high supply prices will plummet and create the greatest buying oppurtunity in the history of warcraft. No real change in demand, but an assumed change by the playerbase!

Play it smart and look for when these items become amazing deals:

Gems
Enchanting Mats
Leg armor kits / Spellthreads

Good Luck.

PS: Use that money you made with glyphs to reinvest into the market. I'll probably be spending 90% of it on these items the next couple of days and into the weekend.

EXAMPLE: I purchased fifteen blue gems on the day after patch day and had them cut into +24 stam. Sold them all for 30 gold each over the course of last week. Total profit of around 15 gold per gem.

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11 comments: on "3.1 Upgrades and Inflation - Not Happening This Time"

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Anonymous said... April 21, 2009 at 10:38 AM

sigh... those cut stam gems are about 9G on my server. Even cut red gems are down in the 75G range.

JC is great for my stats, but, it's hardly the money-maker, unless you have to time to really manage the market.

Looking at Alchemy on an alt, along with fishing for buff food. Looks like that might be the money maker in Ulduar.
Anonymous said... April 21, 2009 at 10:42 AM

Leatherworking mat prices have gone down significantly post patch as the stockpilers liquidate.

The problem resulted from new recipe mats requiring 6 runed orbs rather than the 1 as originally rumored on PTRs. So essentially they are a very limiting reagent.
Tanisi said... April 21, 2009 at 10:58 AM

I was one of the speculators who stockpiled enchanting mats for patch 3.1. This is grim news for me indeed, since I invested about 4-6k in those mats. Looks like I will have to just sell them off slowly.
Infernix said... April 21, 2009 at 11:00 AM

What prices will drop with the large supplies? could you give more info on that?

Its as if my server Terrokar is slower on the uptake when it comes to market fluctuation and thus I battle to find the savings as you and other people post it.

We have cheap stuff on our AH for 1-10G where as on other servers they are 50-100G, but I cant seem to find what is expensive on our AH.

Eternal belt buckles dropped form 68G to 30G in the last two weeks, thus profits are down considerably.

What should I be on the look out for?
Gauri said... April 21, 2009 at 12:29 PM

My realm is consistently listed as "medium" to "low" for population, and I think that is why there has been virtually no change in prices of any item since the patch. I bought some arctic furs in anticipation of their rising value, and they have increased by maybe a gold. I also purchased some other items which were predicted to rise in price (they haven't) but all of my purchases were made when the items were a real bargain, so I do not plan on losing any gold other than what I have currently tied up in inventory.

Is anyone else seeing the same kind of effect on a small realm?

Also remember, if you have scrolls on the AH, they do not have deposit costs. I just (finally) finished leveling up enchanting by making scrolls and putting them on the AH. If they sell - yay - gold I didn't necessarily plan on having.

One good side effect of the patch is that people are leveling cooking, and selling their northern spices cheaply. That helps me a lot, as I am saving mine for my chef hat. Gotta have the hat with my title of Chef. :P
Markco said... April 21, 2009 at 12:30 PM

As a general answer, try not to think in the now when considering prices and value of items. An item's value will change over time and on a weekly basis. Tomorrow belt buckles could be 75 gold, and blue gems might jump to 30 gold because no one is posting them. All that matters is what you paid when you made them and how much you're willing to sell for.
Unknown said... April 21, 2009 at 8:27 PM

As a big DE'er on my server. I've been holding on enchanting mats for a few weeks now. This news comes as quite a blow. Marco would you suggest holding on? Or slowly feed them into the market, once the s6 price crash has blown over?
Anonymous said... April 22, 2009 at 1:06 AM

This shocks me,

But for me, I am very lucky that
TW server hadn't get the 3.1 patches on yet. (They usually 1-2 weeks late, since patches were not so smooth recently)

I wrote a post on whining (I know, it'll be boring) that I can't prepared for the 3.1, and scheduled it when the patch really hits.

I was complaining that I can't stockpile. But hey, now seems I am lucky on that.
Now All I need to do is to get rid of the last stack of infinity dust.
bubu said... April 22, 2009 at 3:13 AM

Thanks for the info m8, i kinda seen that going out on AH.the listing increased by almoust 20% in mats and glyps, people are still putting tons of glyps on the AH and prices droped a lot.no one buys...

only thing it sells good for me are fish... :D

enjoy ur fishing :P :P
Unknown said... April 22, 2009 at 7:38 PM

Well, even though the inflation has hit the market badly, I was able to make 2k+ gold selling gems on this 3.1.1 patch day. There were no mystic resilience gems when I started scanning, so I've put them for 75g each and kept buying rare undercuts for a couple hours. We have to always remember that after a long maintenance there's a great chance to earn some easy cash - some items are just not presented at AH. Wednesdays are great to check on this!

I also have to mention that the Saronite ore's price has fallen to ~14g/stack on my server, so it might be the great time to buy it - soon people will start farming Ulduar and get their new pvp gear and they sure will need more gems than today.

Thanks for your wonderful blog, I've made 50+k since with your help. :)
gold4key said... April 23, 2009 at 3:41 AM

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