Icy Dragonscales are the dream shards of patch 3.1.
Long time readers of this guide will remember a post I made on buying out dream shards pre 3.0.8 since they were going from almost no use at all to major components in many enchanting recipes.
And after 3.0.8 I was quick to make a post on why they initially were not doing amazing with the release of the patch.
On my server the shards are still fluctuating but they have finally risen to 18-20 gold (compared to when I purchased them at 9-15) and they will continue to rise as the demand for these items remains constant.
Icy Dragonscales are going to do the same thing. This relatively useless item will be a primary component in many upcoming trade skills with patch 3.1. I have been purchasing them since monday and will be stockpiling hundreds for resale.
Let's learn from dream shards, shall we?
There will be an initial rush of icy dragonscales going for 200-300% of the current price the day of the patch. This may last for an hour or even as long as eight hours before others catch on and the market floods back down to 1 gold per (the current cost) or less. You will want to be a part of this cash cow while it lasts. When the price drops to LESS THAN THE CURRENT VALUE you will want to buy them out.
Next, the price will remain flooded for a week and then slowly increase over the course of a month. You will want to post a small number (2-3 stacks) every day that you see them going for more than what you purchased them for. While flooded there will surely be amazing deals, snatch them as you see them.
There is a concern that I have with the icy dragonscales that did not exist with dream shards, however. Demand for these items will NOT be consistent. As raiders get more and more gear, the craftable items will become less necessary for raiders (think titansteel weapons/armor).
The big question remains, will the market rebound after the initial roller coaster on patch day, and will it happen in time for there to still be a large demand for the craftable items?
I'd tell you, but my crystal ball is a little hazy today, perhaps another post. I really need to shine this thing more often! :)
What do YOU think?
Long time readers of this guide will remember a post I made on buying out dream shards pre 3.0.8 since they were going from almost no use at all to major components in many enchanting recipes.
And after 3.0.8 I was quick to make a post on why they initially were not doing amazing with the release of the patch.
On my server the shards are still fluctuating but they have finally risen to 18-20 gold (compared to when I purchased them at 9-15) and they will continue to rise as the demand for these items remains constant.
Icy Dragonscales are going to do the same thing. This relatively useless item will be a primary component in many upcoming trade skills with patch 3.1. I have been purchasing them since monday and will be stockpiling hundreds for resale.
Let's learn from dream shards, shall we?
There will be an initial rush of icy dragonscales going for 200-300% of the current price the day of the patch. This may last for an hour or even as long as eight hours before others catch on and the market floods back down to 1 gold per (the current cost) or less. You will want to be a part of this cash cow while it lasts. When the price drops to LESS THAN THE CURRENT VALUE you will want to buy them out.
Next, the price will remain flooded for a week and then slowly increase over the course of a month. You will want to post a small number (2-3 stacks) every day that you see them going for more than what you purchased them for. While flooded there will surely be amazing deals, snatch them as you see them.
There is a concern that I have with the icy dragonscales that did not exist with dream shards, however. Demand for these items will NOT be consistent. As raiders get more and more gear, the craftable items will become less necessary for raiders (think titansteel weapons/armor).
The big question remains, will the market rebound after the initial roller coaster on patch day, and will it happen in time for there to still be a large demand for the craftable items?
I'd tell you, but my crystal ball is a little hazy today, perhaps another post. I really need to shine this thing more often! :)
What do YOU think?
24 comments: on "From cold to HOT: Icy Dragonscales"
Kring said... March 5, 2009 at 8:33 AM
I think I learned from the Ink of the Sea. Still rotting in my bank...
But, you are right. DS climbed in price. I didn't buy any because I still have about 400 LPS and about 200 void crystals in my bank. Not even an NPC buys them. :-(
Anyway, I'll have to stack up enough to make armor kits for sell. Just to be on the safe side.
Markco said... March 5, 2009 at 8:35 AM
I hear ya on the inks Kring, I still have around 800 in my bank waiting for dual specs.
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 8:53 AM
i'm not so sure that this will happen. mainly because of 2 reasons:
1) the recipes aren't likely to be available right away.
2) the fact that the items require "runed orbs", which are the new frozen orb purchased with the new raiding badges. with no known instance drop for them the demand wont be as strong to get the crafted items.
this being said, i'll suggest buying any you find if they are less than 1g per. they vendor for 1g and people are constantly undercutting to the point of "vendor profit". so either way you won't lose money.
Unknown said... March 5, 2009 at 9:03 AM
I've been buying them for vendor with auctioneer, but not actually vendoring, so I'm going to come out ahead if the market is still crap after patch.
McDuk said... March 5, 2009 at 9:12 AM
Hey ya. Just wanted to comment on your comment
"There is a concern that I have with the icy dragonscales that did not exist with dream shards, however. Demand for these items will NOT be consistent. As raiders get more and more gear, the craftable items will become less necessary for raiders (think titansteel weapons/armor)"
I think thats a quite one track line of thinking, a large part of the player base is till casual gamers and not just raiders, new people leveling and alts too, there will always be a market for these type of items. Even raiders alts need to be geard usually before being allowed on guild runs.
A major source of my income is the sale of Titansteel items. I craft and sell on average 5 titansteel items a day, buying bars and orbs and posting back at Ah with an average 300g mark up and they are still selling very well! As long as they remain the current best item in its catagorey available pre raid they will sell.
Markco said... March 5, 2009 at 9:21 AM
You're absolutely right McDuk, but how much more were you making per sale when the hard core players were buying the titansteel items?
Titansteel weapons/armor appear to be similiar on my server; going for around 300 gold more than the mats to craft.
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 9:24 AM
I have been buying Icy Dragonscales in a regular basis. They are super cheap (1 - 2g each) I have like 40 stacks so far and I can see that the prices are already going up, 4g each now. This could be because people like me are buying this item in a regular basis so the seller can see that this item it's selling and raise the price (nothing related to the patch notes). Or people are starting to higher the price for the item because of the patch notes.
No matter what the reason is, if you have been reading this blog in a regular basis, like me, you should have a healthy amount of gold in your "alt" bank from so many amazing post from Markco and some very helpful comments. Therefore, I don't see the problem on spending 500g investing on this item to "try" out your luck. Let's be honest, don't tell me you don't have 500g that you can give away after finding out about this site... come on!
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 9:31 AM
The recipes need large amounts of the scales. It was 40 of them to make a belt IIRC. They simply aren't that common of a drop, even if you are farming mobs just for them, which no one currently does.
As was stated before me, the price of Icy Dragonscales will vary directly with the availability of Runed Orbs. Assuming Runed Orbs drop in Ulduar, as Nether Vortex did in TK and SSC, then the accessibility of Ulduar and the drop rate will directly determine the supply of the belts and the demand on the mats to make them.
Also last I saw, the recipes required six runed orbs. Unless they are dropping like crazy in 10 man Ulduar or readily available from heroics, I would expect them to be tied up in guild banks for quite some time.
Bill said... March 5, 2009 at 9:37 AM
I've put Icy Dragonscales on my Snatch list for 1.5g. I can't make back my money entirely by vendoring if this doesn't take off, but I imagine I'll at least break even.
Markco said... March 5, 2009 at 9:52 AM
What if blizzard implements a method for obtaining the orbs other than drops from trash?
Remember 10 badges for a nether? 40 for a vortex?
Kring said... March 5, 2009 at 9:55 AM
http://static.mmo-champion.com/mmoc/images/news/2009/march/emblemofconquestprice.jpg
15 of the Emblem of Conquest can be used to buy an orb. They drop only in Ulduar 25. It looks like Ulduar 10 will not have an option to buy these.
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 10:25 AM
I tried that since first item is announced. :D
Keep in mind that Titansteel will for sure go up since every plate item will go for 10 titansteels 20 saronite, so pretty sure saronite will go up aswel since atm on my server they go below Cobalt.
I'm pretty sure that we will se orbs from 10 man Yog Sarron and maybe 1-2 bosses - think KT/Saphiron 10 drops i213 items
And from all 25 bosses + some on trash.
You can do easy math. Check wowprogress for your server. How many +3D guilds are there. Inspect their tanks for belt, boots and gloves, do they have top item?
As much guilds are with 3D that much recepies x3 will be crafted first week.
Are on your server more than Number of guilds x3 x number of mats (titansteel/icy) atm on AH?
if not - profit
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 10:39 AM
I think the price on these will rise generally, but on my server there is definitely an excess capacity which limits the upside. Scales are selling for barely more than vendor on my server because there are few good patterns which use the scales, and because of how many are skinned in instances.
My thinking is that the stockpiled dragonscales will keep the prices on them low while demand is initially high right after the patch while hardcore players get their items made, and by the time that market supply is exhausted, demand will also have dropped to a stable equilibrium with supply. It has been mentioned by Markco that because they are used to craft actual gear, rather than enhancements that must be made and used again and again like gems and enchants, that the stable demand is somewhat limited.
And a last point against: with Dragonscale ammo bag being made obsolete in 3.1 with the ammo changes, that supply of 20 scales/bag will be released to help fill a portion of market demand for scales.
My advice is to keep an eye out for cheap scales and don't buy much above current market price of 2g. I sincerely doubt the scale prices will stay stable at a high enough price that it's worth buying hundreds and hundreds of scales above market. If you have a leatherworker you can go a little higher since you will find a use for the scales either way and can probably pass along the extra costs to your customers if prices don't rise much. If you don't have a leatherworker I'd recommend much more caution.
Kring said... March 5, 2009 at 10:42 AM
The ammo change will come AFTER 3.1, sometimes. They don't have the technology yet.
Παναγιώτης Καρανάτσης said... March 5, 2009 at 12:54 PM
I belive that the price won't move or even drop out more than 200% the first week.. but after they will go up to +50 or +100 % than they where before and will stay like that for long time...
That's what will happend cause of the fact that every reads some tips today or sees the next Public Test Realm notes and knows what will go up and what will go down , the thing that others players will do is "Guess" what other prices might go up 'cause of the massive selling of Icy dragon scales, and i belive these will be the Arctic furs ..They are not very easily farmed and they are selling high on AH.They will also be a need for the new items in masses , these are the ones that will go up from the first week and most probably will stay high for long .I kept 10 stacks of Icy dragonscale in the case i see them going high for some hours , thats when i will sell some to make proffit until all are selled(i bought em around 1.5-2g per piece)
That's my guess.
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Hey Marcko, Great Site and Info, I've been using your tips and have made around 500g so far in about 2 days, going kind of slow at first. Anway, I was wondering, how are you figuring out all these mats and things for stuff that will be coming out in the next patch? I've read the patch notes and can't seem to find in there anything about new craftable items. Could you give me some tips on where I could find info? Thanks in advance
Markco said... March 5, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Brownbomer:
Keep an eye on wowinsider, mmo-champion, wowraids, and a plethora of other sources. There are literally dozens of wow news sites out there that provide recent patch notes.
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 4:00 PM
right now the icy dragon scales are BELOW vendor value. i've bought a good 60 - 65 stacks at 15g per. so if i cant sell them on patch day, i know i will at least make a profit vendoring them. 5g profit per stack :D
Anonymous said... March 5, 2009 at 7:58 PM
Kring is wrong about the ammo changes. They ARE making changes in the 3.1 patch notes to how ammo works. The changes are now ammo stacks to 1000 instead of 200 and the ranged haste from quivers are being added to the hunter via the autoshot spell. This means that come 3.1 hunters will have no need for quivers (although they can still use them if they want) and instead can simply put 6 stacks of ammo in one of their other bags and have more ammo than a full 28 slot quiver now.
No smart hunter will have an ammo pouch after 3.1 when they could just put that ammo in 6 slots of a 20 slot bag. If you have any Dragonscale ammo pouches, get rid of them soon.
Anonymous said... March 6, 2009 at 1:57 AM
I've started collecting scales since Monday as well, only buying scales for a per item price of 1.25g so even in the event of the price never rising, the vendor price will only cause me to have a small loss.
I'm up to a few over 300 right now, and it hasn't been that expensive of an investment. I'm hoping for them to rise to 50g per stack, but I think its more likely they average 40g per stack.
Kring said... March 6, 2009 at 4:08 AM
@Brownbomer: And read this http://elitistjerks.com/f15/t38127-icy_art_making_gold/
@Anonymous: Didn't think it through, you are right. Ammo pouches are no longer needed, but ammo is still used. Thanks for pointing this out.
Markco said... March 6, 2009 at 11:07 AM
Icy Dragonscales are up to 3g50 silver on my server. Speculation is fun!
Anonymous said... March 6, 2009 at 5:46 PM
To Kring:
Turn void crystals into weapon vellum with Mongoose. Rogues and Enh Shamans still use the enchant.
Anonymous said... March 13, 2009 at 7:41 PM
Dragonscales are up to 10g buyout on my server atm!
avg bout 5g, i've brought 7-8 stack for appox 2-3 gold jus watching the AH..
Can't wait till patch day! hope the prices soar.
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