So yesterday's post brought up a lot of questions/issues with the vendor price being brought down to 75s per gem, and I'd like to exactly tell you what is going to happen with this change.
For one, you're going to see a lot less people buy ore, due to the safety net of having a high floor price, thus ore will be in high supply but low-medium demand. People won't be buying as much as they have been in the past and with botters putting up thousands of thousands of stacks up at the auction house, the ore will eventually fall, I expect prices in the 15-20, maybe 25g/stack range, maybe even less.
Next, you'll mostly likely see the enchanting materials rise. Why? No one will be doing the shuffle, thus leaving a gap in the market. There won't be a "good" way to obtain enchanting materials and the demand for them is still there, sadly the supply simply won't. It might be a good idea to stockpile some enchanting materials as they'll mostly likely rise a week or so after patch. One could disagree and say that they'll fall, but personally I think that people will at first be scared to go anywhere near Obsidium for at least a week or two until prices stabilize, thus again, creating a "gap" in the market - leaving it short of supply and normal/high in demand.
Next, you're going to see materials drop a bit, namely metas and rare gems. Those who didn't vendor their gems before 4.1 will seek for a way to get rid of their gems instead of vendoring them for the obscene price of 75s per gem and they'll most likely transmute them into metas and rares to sell at the auction house. Even after the patch I expect both of these markets to be flooded - this will become the new "shuffle" and competition will be heavy.
All in all, keep in mind that the information is indeed DATA MINED information, so one should approach this subject carefully until we have confirmation from blizzard that this change is in fact real. My suggestion to the one who are deep into the market: Get out of the market for now, you're better off being safe than sorry.
One thing I want to ask you guys, with this change, could this lead/support the theory of a new ore coming in 4.1/4.2? Leave a comment below!
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30 comments: on "What it all means - JC Gem Vendor Change"
Aatum said... April 8, 2011 at 8:55 AM
no person with a JC and an enchanter would consider buying enchanting mats from the AH if the obsidium price decreases to like 20g a stack. Prices of rare rings/necklaces will probably increase as less people might be doing the shuffle, therefore I think people should snatch 300 rings/necklaces under 30-35 each and 325 rings/necklaces for under 70g each. you can probably end up selling the 300 for 99g and the 325 for 199g
firedispenser said... April 8, 2011 at 8:56 AM
thanks for the post. good to know. i will definately start to prospect all my stocks. BUT i will continue to buy ore under Floor price and instant prospect it. its still profit, right? ;)
maybe stocking the daily gems is a good idea. they will probably be very rare as well a few weeks after the patch hits.
Skorpsy said... April 8, 2011 at 9:02 AM
Skorpsy said... April 8, 2011 at 9:10 AM
Awsemogreeb said... April 8, 2011 at 9:14 AM
A new ore from the firelands zone looks very possible.
Unknown said... April 8, 2011 at 9:22 AM
Man This is HUGE!!
In Economy that will bring much less gold available in the market..
the gold from selling things to vendors is what add money to the economy, now the gold will flow more player-player (dont add money to the game, just change the owner) than player-vendor..
Its blizzard move to reduce the gold flow in the market.. Ultimatly ALL prices will go down, as there will be less available gold..
Anonymous said... April 8, 2011 at 9:35 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it only says the cut gems price has been dropped. The uncut gems are still worth 5g/ea. So while the price will drop drastically, it won't be as much as the 75s/ea that people are freaking out about. You just can't cut the gems for that 4g extra boost.
Masochistic Bear said... April 8, 2011 at 9:36 AM
You keep missing the fact that no change to the uncut vendor price has been datamined. Uncut 'green' gems sell for 5g each, so unless that price changes, the floor for a stack of Obsidium Ore is 30g.
Anonymous said... April 8, 2011 at 9:52 AM
Why would you think that the cut price drop by a factor of ten and the uncut price stay the same? It makes no sense to me.
The Lost Meeple said... April 8, 2011 at 9:56 AM
Guys be realistic here, yeah the change hasn't hit uncut yet, but when has a gem vendored for more uncut than cut? Never. I suspect if they do change the price of cut gems, they will also change the price of uncut gems, it just goes hand in hand.
Harold said... April 8, 2011 at 10:25 AM
I think this is much ado about nothing. I don't see this change being implemented in the game. No way no how. Not gonna happen. It's a good topic to drive people to the JMTC site, but that's about it.
smokinhot said... April 8, 2011 at 10:36 AM
It's not just datamined, it's live in the PTR too.
Harold said... April 8, 2011 at 10:44 AM
If it's on the PTR then it must be true... Seriously, though, it would be a massive change to the economy and I just do see it happening.
Anonymous said... April 8, 2011 at 10:45 AM
You do remember that everyone said the 9g cut price would never hit live because never have uncommon gems vendored for less than rare gems?
Has anyone said if the perfect versions would sell for 75s or 150s?
If it's 75s, then the perfect uncommon cataclysm gems would be cheaper than uncommon perfect WotLK
helen said... April 8, 2011 at 11:13 AM
Im not sure why enchanting mats will rise. Surely if the ore price is 25g or something thats still profitable? There will be less buying the ore for vendor so those left buying it will be doing so for enchanting mats no?
Anonymous said... April 8, 2011 at 11:45 AM
First, I don't believe this will make it to the live realms. However, I hope it does, and this is why... this also means the price to post on the AH will go dramatically down. This might actually make it worthwhile to post again.
And besides, I never vendor those types of gems. Those are for the shadowspirit transmute, and the JC dailies.
Please please please post cheap ore. I can't wait.
jmac39 said... April 8, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Ok I don't get it. Are you telling me the whole ore market is driven by JC doing the shuffle? I don't even have a high level JC and I consume stacks and stacks of ore for BS and engineering. So I find it hard to believe that the whole market will crash or adjust down that much just because of JCing. Seems like there will be plenty of need for ore. Is this just me not having a full grasp of the market? Don't you think if they drop the price there they will add epics that will compensate for the 9g loss?
Anonymous said... April 8, 2011 at 12:58 PM
I don't think anyone is saying that JC is the only proffession driving the ore market, I use ore for blacksmithing and engineering too, but I will literally buy any amount of ore priced below my set thresholds because of the floor price. I have never spent 30 or 40k on ore for blacksmithing.
Anonymous said... April 8, 2011 at 1:04 PM
I was expecting a price drop for vendored uncommon gems.I mean, seriously...9g for a shit gem?This alone have pushed the inflation sky high after first 3-4 weeks of cata rush.I for one, never did the obsidium shuffle on large scale, waste of time tbh.I was focused on elementium, since on my server obsidium price=elementium price.
And to answer to the guy about if the market was driven by JCs doing the shuffle...most of the market, yes.Consider that everyone and their dog is a JC.Every low capital JCer did the shuffle.This affected the ore prices in general, so w/e engi and BS use to craft from ore, had an impact on the final product.
My entire philosophy of making gold is based on ore and bars prices, since i get almost 80% of my revenues based on JC cut rare gems, daily JC uncommons, buckles and chains from BS, trasmute inferno and topaz and making carnelian spikes to disenchant and sell enchanting mats and/or enchanting vellums.
If this change will go live, is nothing but good for economy.I expect enchanting mats to drop in price, and not rising.I do not expect a new type of ore in 4.1.In fact, i bet won't be any.I expect obsidium ore to drop hard, at least 50% in price and i also expect them to rise in price, after nobody will bother go after them.At start, everyone will dump their obsidium ores, and go farm pyrite / elemetium, triggering a price drop on those ores.
The reason why Blizz would do that, and most liley they will do it, is to drop pyrite ore prices even lower than it is now...because make no mistakes, epic gems will be prospected out of pyrites.And the only way for them to force a price drop on pyrites is, you get it, kill the obsidium shuffle.And what better way to do it than making a factor 10 price drop on uncommon gems.
This solves the prices of metas, rare gems and future epic gems, because, you know, new gear will need all of the above.Oh, end enchants, that will also drop in price.
Simbaria said... April 8, 2011 at 1:43 PM
On my server, the carnelians never drop to 9g each; turning them into carnelian spikes to disenchant, or into Inferno Rubies is probably what happens to most of the ones that are produced at the moment.
This means, that if there is less total ore being prospected, then there will be fewer Inferno Rubies in total.
It might well result in a price increase for them - they are now going to represent a higher proportion of the value of prospecting.
Shamnaddz said... April 8, 2011 at 3:03 PM
As Aatum said no JC/Chanter will buy mats off the ah if obsidium drops as predicted. But I still dont see any "good" way to produce chanting mats. To me that means you are right. With questing/ dungeons or farming I guess, being the only profitable way to get and sell them we will see much less on the ah. Supply down, demand up.
Anonymous said... April 8, 2011 at 3:37 PM
I'm not sure i'm following the thought process of 'cheaper ore means less enchanting mats' -- Maybe I'm just misunderstanding, but if ore drops like predicted, I'll be buying it up all day to DE...
Anonymous said... April 9, 2011 at 12:18 AM
I see you point about all this, but frankly if ore drops to 20-25g per stack, I'll still be making a huge profit. as it is, the only gem I'm cutting and vendoring is zepherite. Everything else (orange red and purple) get's transmuted into the appropriate gems by my alch and yellow and green (sometimes orange if I have too many) get made into Jewelry to DE. So in essence, by reducing the all around cost of ore, it will increase the profit margins if you're doing the FULL shuffle. More professions, more opportunities SNKYlsr
Anonymous said... April 9, 2011 at 4:25 PM
Do you know how many people on my server do the shuffle and vendor cut uncommon gems? MAYBE 1-2 guys. If that. Typically everyone on my server does one of 4 things with the uncommons-
1. Xmute into meta
2. Xmute into Rares
3. Sell them uncut
4. Make JC stuff to DE
The price of ore on my server is just at the threshold. I seriously doubt this effecting my server very much, especially when uncutes sell for 12-16g in AH, easy.
Elijah said... April 9, 2011 at 7:54 PM
Do I dump my Pyrite Ore? I have a guild bank full of it.
Anonymous said... April 9, 2011 at 8:14 PM
I highly doubt that it is only 1-2 people. There is such thing as a jewelcrafter without an enchanter you know and I doubt that very many people have a designated enough friend to sit there and disenchant 100s of pieces without a massive tip which will bring the profit down quite a bit if not make the profit non-existant.
Anonymous said... April 9, 2011 at 9:09 PM
I certainly agree that whether uncut remain 500s or drops to 75s will certainly affect and effect ore price
I think that people will still be doing the obsidium shuffle. Just everything will cost and sell for a lot less.
My guess is that enchanting materials will keep dropping until it gets to the price dictated by the gems. i.e. quite a ways
Anonymous said... April 10, 2011 at 12:11 AM
jmac39:
I can easily go through a thousand stacks of ore a day for jewel crafting.
Anonymous said... April 10, 2011 at 12:21 AM
I really hope stockpiling 12140x Pyrite Ore was a good move. If I can't prospect them into epic gems I'm pretty much screwed.
ibad said... April 10, 2011 at 4:39 AM
I think this change was done because it gave JC a gold making advantage over other professions.
Have a 9g cut gem price gives a ore floor price only for jewelcrafters. Other professions don't have that same floor.
Now everyone has the same 5g uncut floor price.
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